The Best Forecasting is done in the Holidays!
One of our favourite pastimes is business forecasting.
Sure, you are probably rolling your eyes, but it is, possibly sadly, true.
The process of sitting down with facts, figures and trends from the past and present, with a view to coming up with a full proof plan to reach a certain goal, really resonates with me on all levels.
However, we understand, that this process of “predicting” the future, can be somewhat daunting and painful for some.
Paul Saffo, a technology forecaster, quoted, “The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present.”
Forecasting begins with some assumptions which are generally based on pieces of knowledge, your experience and a big judgement call.
Forecasting should be done at the beginning of or the end of a year. And, in fact, over the holiday period, you will find the perfect time to forecast.
Why are the holidays the best time to forecast?
It is all in the approach to the task. We believe that if you are relaxed, with no pushing and stressful tasks to attend to, you will have a more open and innovative mind.
While you do need to rest up and get away from all work related aspects, once you have had your full dosage of sun, sand and cocktails, take an hour or two, spread over a few days, and think about where you want your business to go over the next year. You don’t need to cast anything in stone. Simply allow your mind to wander and in a low-key manner, come up with a loose but workable forecast.
Here are a couple of questions you can line up and mull over, slowly, during your festive break:
- How does my current year’s growth rate compare to that of last years?
- What was my total spend this past year and how does it compare to other years?
- What was my total revenue this past year and how does it compare to other years?
- Where were there dips and spikes in income over the past year and can I track what caused them?
- How can I replicate those spikes going forward and how can I avoid those dips?
- Where I ran specials, such as Black Friday deals, how did they do and was it worth the bother?
- Are there products or services that are doing particularly well?
- Which are the products and services that are not doing well?
- Can I see a positive trend that formed over the past year and how can I replicate that again?
- What is the current business model and is it working? Or do we need a change?
- What recurring revenue models am I using? And, if none, how can we incorporate these going forward?
If you are, at all, stuck on your forecasting, reach out to us at Optigrowth, and let’s see how we can assist.